On February 24, 2022, the world witnessed the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fast forward two years, and there is still no end in sight for Europe’s largest conflict since WWII. Since the start of the war, there has been widespread speculation that Russia would quickly overcome Ukrainian defenses and seize control of the capital, Kyiv.
The ongoing conflict has displaced millions of Ukrainians, reshaped Europe’s geopolitical dynamics, and had significant global economic consequences. Supply chains have been disrupted, fueling inflation.
The war has entered its third year, and Russia currently holds the upper hand. There is no indication that peace talks will begin anytime soon, as both countries’ peace plans are currently incompatible. Amid the ongoing unrest, The Ultimate News reported that, according to two senior administration officials, the US has begun ‘preparing rigorously’ for the possibility of Russia launching a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
According to reports, the Biden administration was particularly concerned about Russia’s potential deployment of a tactical or battlefield nuclear weapon during the conflict. They were prepared to use every tactic in the book to avoid a nuclear conflict.
US’s Cue For Fear Of Nuclear Attack
1. Russian forces faced a devastating period in late summer 2022, when Ukrainian forces advanced on Russian-occupied Kherson. The possibility of a catastrophic loss, as well as the proximity of Russian units, were viewed as triggers for Russia to use nuclear weapons.
2. Between late summer and fall 2022, the National Security Council held a series of meetings to develop contingency plans in the event of a clear indication or actual occurrence of a nuclear attack by Russia. The unexpected need for these preparations caught many officials off guard.
3. Simultaneously, Russia’s propaganda machine spread a false flag story about a Ukrainian dirty bomb, raising concerns that it could be used to cover up a Russian nuclear attack. U.S. officials dismissed the warnings, but they remained concerned about Russia’s motivations.
4. Intelligence agencies obtained information about communications between Russian officials that explicitly discussed a nuclear strike. The risk was deemed to be increasing, necessitating immediate outreach and high-level discussions between US and Russian officials.
Plan To Avoid The Contingency
To persuade Russia not to launch a nuclear attack, the US actively contacted its allies and sought assistance from non-allies such as China and India. The involvement of powerful global entities was deemed critical to preventing a crisis.
Despite a reduction in the immediate threat as the conflict has reached a stalemate, US and allied officials remain vigilant. The ongoing refinement of plans recognizes that nuclear threats may escalate in the coming months.